Three Companies, Three Convexity Profiles
Nike, Visa, and NVIDIA sit at three different points on the convexity spectrum: negative growth, moderate stable growth, and explosive growth. Each case study below shows the full weekly price history alongside the current PCS tier standing, plus the most recent quarters computed against this site's live, fully-verified scoring pipeline.
Weekly close, 2019-09-06 to 2026-09-02 · 7 years
| Quarter End | Tier | gR | gE | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-31 | 3 | -2.83% | +12.91% | $83.32 |
| 2024-11-30 | 4 | -4.97% | -0.19% | $78.77 |
| 2025-02-28 | 4 | -7.30% | -19.99% | $79.43 |
| 2025-08-31 | 4 | -7.14% | -49.14% | $77.37 |
| 2025-11-30 | 4 | -5.03% | -52.16% | $64.63 |
| 2026-02-28 | 4 | -2.71% | -49.96% | $62.18 |
| 2026-05-31 | 4 | +0.2% | -3.3% | $46.23 |
Note: NKE's fiscal quarters do not align to calendar quarters (fiscal year ends in May); quarter-end dates above are NKE's own reporting periods, not this site's product-rebalance calendar.
Nike’s PCS swung from 3.13 (Tier 1) to −0.60 (Tier 4) over 22 quarters, the widest PCS range of the three stocks in this study. The Q1 2022 → Q2 2022 tier collapse (Tier 1 → Tier 3, PCS dropping from 2.13 to 0.24) preceded Nike’s continued 38% price decline. The PCS signal led the price. Meanwhile, beta remained near 1.0 and RMW at 0.63 throughout, offering no warning of the structural deterioration. That deterioration has continued in the verified data above: six straight Tier 4 quarters through fiscal 2026, with earnings growth (gE) running deeply negative even as revenue decline has moderated.
| Period | Tier | PCS Range | Price Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2019 | 2 | 1.78 | $101 | Earnings recovery from FY2018 tax charge |
| Q1-Q4 2020 | 4 | −0.54 to −0.60 | $83-$141 | COVID collapse; PCS correctly penalizes deteriorating fundamentals |
| Q2 2021-Q1 2022 | 1 | 2.13-3.13 | $135-$167 | Peak PCS = 3.13 at Q3 2021; stock peaks Q4 2021 |
| Q2 2022-Q1 2024 | 3 | 0.01-0.24 | $83-$123 | Normalization; PCS converges toward zero |
| Q3 2024-Q1 2025 | 4 | −0.04 to −0.38 | $63-$88 | Structural decline; PCS deepening negative |
Weekly close, 2019-09-06 to 2026-09-02 · 7 years
| Quarter End | Tier | gR | gE | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-30 | 3 | +9.70% | +15.57% | $262.47 |
| 2024-12-31 | 3 | +10.35% | +11.05% | $316.04 |
| 2025-03-31 | 3 | +10.19% | +8.13% | $350.46 |
| 2025-06-30 | 3 | +11.38% | +6.18% | $355.05 |
| 2025-12-31 | 3 | +12.47% | +4.11% | $350.71 |
| 2026-03-31 | 3 | +14.37% | +11.82% | $302.24 |
Note: Visa's fiscal year ends in September; quarter-end dates above are Visa's own reporting periods.
Visa’s PCS never exceeded 1.45 in the original 22-quarter study, a low-convexity, high-stability franchise. The narrow PCS band reflects Visa’s toll-booth business model: steady, predictable revenue and adjusted-earnings growth that doesn’t swing wildly. This is the textbook Tier 3 stock. Beta at 0.80 and RMW at 0.36 correctly suggest low volatility and moderate profitability exposure, but neither can tell you Visa will compound at nearly 2x over the period. The verified data above shows the pattern holding six straight quarters later: Tier 3 throughout, PCS drifting up toward 0.68 as both revenue and adjusted-earnings growth firmed in the most recent quarter.
| Period | Tier | PCS Range | Price Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2019-Q1 2020 | 3 | 0.70-0.77 | $154-$180 | Steady 12-13% revenue growth |
| Q2 2020-Q2 2021 | 4 | −0.49 to 0.11 | $185-$226 | Travel revenue hit; stock rose on recovery expectations |
| Q3 2021-Q3 2022 | 2 | 1.05-1.45 | $173-$216 | Only 2 quarters at Tier 2; peak recovery growth |
| Q4 2022-Q1 2025 | 3 | 0.52-1.12 | $203-$348 | Remarkably stable; +71% price gain with steady PCS |
Weekly close, 2019-09-06 to 2026-09-02 · 7 years · split-adjusted
| Quarter End | Tier | gR | gE | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-27 | 1 | +152.44% | +233.94% | $141.54 |
| 2025-04-27 | 1 | +86.17% | +80.23% | $111.01 |
| 2025-07-27 | 1 | +71.55% | +63.36% | $173.50 |
| 2025-10-26 | 1 | +65.22% | +57.27% | $186.26 |
| 2026-04-26 | 1 | +70.68% | +107.90% | $208.27 |
| 2026-07-26 | 1 | +83.38% | +122.73% | $206.84 |
Note: NVIDIA's fiscal year ends in late January; quarter-end dates above are NVIDIA's own reporting periods. A quarter ending around 2026-01-25 (fiscal Q4/annual) did not resolve as a standalone anchor in this pipeline's point-in-time logic and is omitted rather than estimated.
NVIDIA’s PCS peaked at 61.77 in Q2 2024, the highest PCS ever recorded in this dataset. When both revenue and earnings grow at triple-digit rates together, PCS captures a convexity that linear models miss entirely. Beta at 2.17 tells you NVIDIA is volatile, and RMW at 0.01 (p=0.978) tells you the Fama-French profitability factor explains nothing about NVIDIA’s returns. PCS captures what both miss. The verified data above shows the AI-driven Tier 1 run has continued for six consecutive quarters since, with PCS settling into a still-extraordinary 4-18 range as the growth base itself has scaled into the hundreds of billions.
| Period | Tier | PCS Range | Price Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2020 | 4 | −0.56 | $6.56 | Crypto hangover + COVID |
| Q4 2020-Q2 2022 | 1 | 3.08-5.70 | $13-$27 | 7 consecutive Tier 1 quarters; gaming boom |
| Q3 2022-Q2 2023 | 4 | −0.84 to 1.43 | $12-$42 | Crypto winter; PCS collapsed but stock surged on AI hype |
| Q3 2023-Q1 2025 | 1 | 0.82-61.77 | $43-$134 | AI supercycle; unprecedented PCS levels |
These case studies are illustrative research examples, not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Unlike the product pages on this site, PCS scores and tier-classification detail are shown here for educational purposes, consistent with how these three companies are discussed in the underlying research. Past PCS classification and past price performance are not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Milligan nor Nina Milligan, CFP®, is a registered investment adviser or holds a securities license, and nothing on this page constitutes investment advice.